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2018-06-01

Inte bara invandring driver väljare till SD

Om upplevelsen av respekt, inflytande och valuta för skatterna

Det är en förenkling att endast tillskriva invandringsfrågan tillväxten hos Sverigedemokraterna. SD-väljarna särskiljer sig kraftigt på flera punkter jämfört med övriga partier. I väsentligt lägre utsträckning upplever de att politiker lyssnar, att de får valuta för skatterna och att de är respekterade av samhället. Invandringsfrågan verkar ha blivit en symbol för att samhällets fokus och resurser vänds till andra än mig själv.

Sverigedemokraternas framgångar i opinionen har under lång tid tillskrivits att de varit ett parti som attraherat väljare på grund av partiets politik i invandrings- och integrationsfrågor. I takt med att allmänheten i större utsträckning uppfattar att invandringsfrågorna hör till de viktigaste har också SD kunnat växa till sig. När invandring har varit på agendan har SD vuxit i opinionen och vice versa, när andra frågor haft mediernas fokus har SDs tillväxt hållits tillbaka.

Vi har de senaste tiden också kunnat se att SD växer trots att de övriga stora partierna, Moderaterna och senast Socialdemokraterna, i sin retorik blivit mer återhållsamma till invandringen. Då inställer sig frågan; är det andra faktorer som också ligger bakom SD tillväxt? Finns där andra komponenter som riskerar falla i glömska i analysen av Sverigedemokraternas tillväxt? (Här ligger rapporten med alla siffror.)

Tre perspektiv på värderingsförändringar
I ett tidigare blogginlägg från januari 2017 redogjorde vi för den amerikanska statsvetaren Katherin J. Cramers studie av förändringar i värderingar hos landsbygdsbefolkningen i Wisconsin. I deras fall innebar värderingsskiftet att de gick från att tidigare (kring 2006-2008) ha röstat på demokraterna och Barack Obama till att senare (2012) vända sig till republikanerna och de mer konservativa krafter som ville ta makten i staten Wisconsin. Efter Cramers återkommande samtal med människorna på landsbygden i Wisconsin lyfte hon fram tre perspektiv till dessa värderingsförändringar.

  • Att just deras landsända är ignorerade av beslutsfattare. The Power.
  • Att just deras miljöer inte får sin rättmätiga del av resurser. The Money.
  • Att deras värderingar och livsstil är fundamentalt annorlunda än stadsbors och att människorna i staden missförstår dem och/eller inte respekterar dem. The Respect.

Med dessa känslor som klangbotten leder det till val som kan te sig irrationella för en utomstående men, menade Cramer, inte alls behöver vara det. Utifrån en människas uppfattning om världen kan hennes beslut vara fullt rationella. Författaren menade att staten och politikerna i Wisconsin inte tillräckligt förstått de känslor som gror på landsbygden.

Förstår vi vad som gror bland svenskar?
Efter att Socialdemokraterna och Moderaterna tillsammans tappat kring 15 procentenheter av väljarkåren de senaste 12 åren finns det anledning att ställa sig frågan om de etablerade partierna verkligen förstått de känslor som gror i Sverige? Vi vet att invandringsfrågan är viktig för Sverigedemokraternas tillväxt. Vi vet att dess väljare är motståndare till invandring i större utsträckning än andra partiers väljare. Men kan det finnas andra faktorer som också skiljer SDs väljarkår från övriga partiers? Vi lät därför ställa frågor för att i viss mån fånga upp de tre perspektiv som Cramer lyfte fram i sin studie. Vi ställde frågor som försöker se om det finns skillnader mellan olika partiers väljare i frågan om man känner sig ignorerade av beslutsfattare (the power), om man känner att man får tillräcklig valuta (välfärd) för de skatter man betalar (the money) och om man upplever att politiker och medier tillräckligt väl respekterar och skildrar sin egen livssituation (the respect).

Vi formulerade frågorna på följande sätt:

  • Tycker du att politiker i allmänhet respekterar det sätt du valt att leva, eller tycker du inte det
  • Hur tycker du att det yrke du arbetar inom skildras i media?
  • Hur tycker du att politiker lyssnar på vad du tycker, på ett …
  • Känner du dig respekterad i samhället eller gör du inte det
  • I vilken utsträckning tycker du att media beskriver människor i din livssituation på ett korrekt sätt
  • I vilken utsträckning tycker du att du får valuta för de skatter du betalar
  • I vilken utsträckning är de politiska frågor som just nu diskuteras av politiker viktiga för dig

Sverigedemokratiska väljare särskiljer sig på punkt efter punkt
Undersökningen gick ut till 1504 personer i Kantar Sifos slumpmässigt rekryterade riksrepresentativa webbpanel. Den låg i fält mellan 23 och 28 maj. Undersökningen är vägd på kön, ålder och region. När vi undersöker resultaten med avseende på kön, ålder och storstad vs övriga landet ser vi några relativt små skillnader. Män upplever sig i något lägre utsträckning än kvinnor vara respekterade av politiker och samhället. Vi ser också en liten skillnad mellan storstad och övriga landet i frågan om respekt från politiker. Vidare tycks det vara så att personer mellan 30 och 49 år i något större omfattning upplever sig respekterade. Däremot, när vi studerar resultaten baserat på vilket parti man skulle rösta på om det vore val idag blir det tydligt att Sverigedemokraternas väljare särskiljer sig kraftigt. De sticker ut i sex av de sju undersökta frågorna.

  • 23 procent av SDs väljare tycker att politiker i allmänhet respekterar det sätt de valt att leva. Detta kan jämföras med 60 procent och 63 procent bland borgerliga väljare (M+C+L+KD) respektive rödgröna (S+MP+V).
  • 84 procent av SDs väljare tycker att politiker lyssnar på ett mycket eller ganska dåligt sätt, jämför med 47 procent och 43 procent av borgerliga respektive rödgröna väljare.
  • 55 procent av SDs väljare känner sig respekterade av samhället. Motsvarande andelar för borgerliga och rödgröna är 84 procent och 79 procent.
  • 26 procent av SDs väljare tycker att media beskriver deras livssituation på ett korrekt sätt. Bland borgerligt röstande är andelen 53 procent och bland rödgröna 56 procent.
  • 82 procent av SDs väljare tycker att de i (ganska eller mycket) låg utsträckning får valuta för de skatter de betalar. Jämförande andelar för borgerliga och rödgröna är 45 procent respektive 18 procent. 16 procent av SDs väljare tycker att de får valuta för de skatter de betalar. Andelen borgerliga är 51 procent och bland rödgröna är andelen 78 procent.
  • SDs väljare står dessutom ut vad gäller frågan om man tycker att de dagsaktuella frågorna som politiker diskuterar är viktiga. Var tredje håller med i mycket hög utsträckning. Övriga grupper ligger något lägre.
  • Den fråga där SDs väljare inte särskiljer sig från övriga handlar hur ens yrke beskrivs i media. 45 procent av SDs väljare tycker i likhet med genomsnittet av allmänheten att ens yrke beskrivs på rätt sätt eller ganska rätt sätt.

Att kommunicera med alla ställer stora krav
Det är uppenbart att SDs väljare i lägre utsträckning än andra tycker:

  • att politiker lyssnar
  • att de får valuta för skatterna
  • att de är respekterade av samhället

Det är klarlagt sen länge att SDs framgångar i opinionen är kopplade till partiets invandringspolitik, men vi kan konstatera att det finns underströmmar som tarvar mer förståelse och analys. Kanske blir invandringsfrågan en symbol för att samhällets fokus och resurser vänds till andra än mig själv. Det kan bidra till en känsla av att man glöms bort, en känsla som kommuniceras och förstärks i samtal med andra. Den här typen av erfarenheter kan förändra åsikter och ”vi” vänds till ”dom”. Precis som Cramer visade var fallet i Wisconsin.

En tid där känslan och upplevelsen regerar ställer stora krav på våra politiker, för att alla ska känna tillhörighet. I vilken omfattning detta har lyckats kommer det säkert ställas många frågor om framöver. Vi hjälper gärna till med mer insikter.

Vår branschkollega David Ahlin skrev en krönika i Sydsvenskan baserad på vår undersökning. Läs gärna den också.

För mer information om undersökningen eller en presentation av den, hör av er till vår opinionschef Toivo Sjörén, toivo.sjoren@kantarsifo.com, eller undertecknad.

Jonathan Wennö

Affärsområdeschef

0709-839574

Kommentarer

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Larry requested and daddy nodded. ?Properly I could

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?Jesus is so cool. Its fun being with God. He is the funnest God anyone might have.?

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You can play it anytime you want.? Daddy answered. ?Because talking about how great God is makes him completely happy

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